The Battle of Hastings marked the end of the Anglo-Saxon era and the beginning of the Norman period. It set in place the later Plantagenet dynasty, the Hundred Years War, and the infusion of many French-origin words into English. Without a doubt, it’s a prime turning point in English, British, and possibly world history.
We all know the narrative. It was a culmination of a power struggle for the English throne, between rivals from England, Normandy, and Norway.
But what if King Harold Godwinson had won?
What likely scenarios can be discerned from this?
Scenario 1 - The Normans lose the battle, King Harold dies, but Duke William lives
If the English hold a pyrhhic victory in King Harold dying despite winning, possibly:
Edgar is formally made king, with support from the Witan acting as regents until he is of age to rule solely.
The remaining Norman forces in England are defeated, and the English naval forces marshal the coast to ensure no reprisals from Normandy arise.
Raids are led against Normandy to quell further support.
William is captured, and possibly killed to prevent further uprisings.
If William escapes, he seeks allies elsewhere, possibly appealing to the Welsh or Scots, or further afield to the Norse to gain more troops. If he cannot secure further alliances, he goes back to Normandy and rebuilds, or tries to secure his rule from inner rebellions or those of his neighbours in Anjou, Brittany and Flanders.
If William is captured and killed, then King Henry I doesn’t exist as he was born in England following the Conquest. His other sons, Robert Curthose and William Rufus, are still alive though they could form a further invasion as revenge for their father’s defeat.
By 1100 AD - An older and more seasoned King Edgar possibly is secure in his rule, though is ever watchful regarding further invasions from Normandy.
He may also watch out for alliances between the Scots, Welsh and Normans, as they may exploit the feudal overlord status England often hold over them in the latter Anglo-Saxon period.
Scenario 2 - The Normans lose, Duke William dies, and William’s sons seek revenge
His sons were young, and needed support to raise another army to subdue the English. Their father gained troops from his nearby allies such as Flanders and Brittany, and thus with such losses their nobles and lords may not have been as willing to give them more aid.
Normandy may fall foul of the King of France, from whom they gained the right to the rule their Duchy. If they couldn’t make up feudal dues, or were seen as a less valuable vassal, it could mean the Duchy is seized by the king, or is otherwise subsumed into the core royal French kingdom.
As the Norse kingdoms had Christianised by this time, and became more connected to mainland European culture and commerce, there were fewer Norse raids on England by this time. By 1066 AD, there were far more cultural and religious similarities between Denmark, Norway, Sweden and England, certainly compared to the earlier Viking Age of the 8th and 9th centuries, or in the 10th century under Kings Athelstan, Edmund and Edgar. William’s sons may have appealed to the Norse kingdoms to launch an invasion, possibly referencing their shared Norse descent. However, King Harald Hardrada himself only invaded due to a regal claim and not to raid and pillage as earlier Norse did. It’s possible that Norse rulers would hold little inclination to reclaim the English throne, especially as there were no real claimants to it other than Hardrada, who himself had died at Stamford Bridge earlier in 1066.
Curthose and Rufus’s options are limited, and they may have had to wait until adulthood to raise forces and gain power to re-commence an English invasion. However, William’s rationale for invading was that King Edward the Confessor had promised him the throne. Such a promise would be roundly denied by the English elite, and without real proof it had no standing. Though the Pope endorsed William’s claim, so it’s possible they would have sought further Papal backing.
With respect to Papal backing, he may have declined as having lost, it was God’s sign regarding who should rule England. The Catholic Church was also reticient to intefere in temporal matters, and reserved its right to govern spiritual affairs solely.
A further invasion may have succeeded, once Curthose and Rufus came of age. Though Edgar, who also would have become of age at that time, may well have built up enough defences and resources to forestall any invasion at that time.
By 1100 AD - Curthose and Rufus would have been older and possibly had recovered Normandy to a state that can effectively subdue England. Though England itself would have had decades to recover, and could rely on a larger population and better administration to raise more forces.
Scenario 3 - King Harold launches a retributive attack on Normandy
Even if William surived the battle despite losing it, King Harold may well have sought to limit Normandy’s threat and take the war to Normandy itself. He had knowledge of its terrain by serving briefly under William as Duke. With much of its forces destoryed or captured, Normandy was weak, and prime for subduing at that point.
An English force could have taken much of Normandy, or ensured it was subdued to the point it couldn’t be a threat.
King Harold may have made a deal with the King of France, perhaps dividing the Duchy between them, or otherwise agreeing to limit its power. He may have disavowed the Confessor’s said promise to William, and cited no real proof of this in kind.
A long-term weakining of Normandy would be more secure if Harold captured William’s sons, or even William himself if he managed to retreat with his closest retainers to Normandy.
The English had little large-scale experience of overseas conquests or campaigns, though the need to vanquish a rival would not have been lost on them in this regard.
After defeating Hardrada and William, and most likely continuing the dominion of the Welsh and Scots, Harold would be amongst the most powerful English monarchs at that point - along with Athelstan, Edgar the Peaceful, and Cnut. Maybe he gains the moniker “herered”, roughly meaning “war rule”, or “Ironside” like his predecessor as king of England, Edmund II.
By 1100 AD - King Harold may not have lived to this point, as he was in his 40s when he became king. However, he had children, who in turn would have inherited his kingdom. If Normandy is subdued via military defeat, then parts of the Duchy may have taken more of an English character, leading to Englsih placenames, culture and language being more entrenched there. What is now the condition of the Channel Islands might be more common in mainland Normandy itself.
Nobody can be sure what would happen.
Though it’s fun to speculate all the same.